The saying “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” can help us understand what is currently happening in Mozambique between “Frenamo” (an alleged alliance between the Frelimo and Renamo parties on issues of common interest) and Podemos (Povo Otimista para o Desenvolvimento de Moçambique). 

On October 9, Mozambicans exercised their right to vote in the country’s seventh general election since 1994. However, local and international observers, including the Mais Integridade Electoral Observation Platform and the EU Election Observation Mission in Mozambique, point to an electoral process marred by irregularities, such as ballot box stuffing, fake observers registered by Frelimo, and ghost voters. In this context, Venâncio Mondlane, backed by the Podemos party, emerges as the second electoral force in the country’s history to challenge both Frelimo, the party in power since independence, and Renamo, the main opposition party since 1994. 

Mondlane began his political career in 2013 in the Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (MDM), a minor opposition party founded in 2009. Following the death of Renamo’s historic leader, Afonso Dhlakama, in 2018, Mondlane switched to Renamo and claimed victory in the 2023 municipal elections for the city of Maputo. While parallel counts gave Mondlane a majority of around 50 percent of the vote, the official bodies gave the same figures to Frelimo. In this context, Mondlane stands out as one of the main exponents of the so-called Blue Revolution (in reference to Renamo’s color), a series of protests and demonstrations with great mobilization and participation of young Mozambicans. Many of these demonstrations took as their motto the title of the late rapper Azagaia’s song “Povo no Poder” (People in Power) and were violently repressed by the Mozambican security forces.

After an internal power struggle with the current Renamo leader, Ossufo Momade, Mondlane left the party. Prevented from standing in the elections supported by Coligação Aliança Democrática (CAD), Podemos backed his candidacy. Mondlane has claimed victory based on parallel counts in a presidential election in which widely denounced electoral irregularities have tainted Frelimo, while Renamo has lost its position as leader of the opposition. The result of this election is the weakness of Renamo as an opposition (who have historically exhibited a thirst for power), and the fragility of Frelimo as a center of power that has concentrated and distributed access to state resources. Finally, there is a strengthened Podemos that is breaking in an unprecedented way with a democratic dispute based on the historic two-party rivalry between Frelimo and Renamo.

In a broader sense, Mondlane embodies and reflects one of the central issues of the Mozambican reconciliation process: political inclusion, or the lack of it. A brief excursion into history will help to contextualize this. 

Mozambique and its people have experienced almost thirty years of continuous war: the liberation struggle against Portuguese colonialism (1964–1974) and the 16-year civil war between Frelimo and Renamo (1976–1992). These wars left a country in ruins, a population scarred by pain and suffering in their bodies and memories, and an enormous potential for violence. In the hope of reconciliation, three successive peace agreements and amnesty laws were signed and approved by Frelimo and Renamo leadership in 1992, 2014, and 2019. At the heart of the conflict between these political forces is the aforementioned political inclusion, or lack thereof, which has manifested itself over the years in various disputes, such as the process of political decentralization and the despartidarização (depoliticization) of the Mozambican state. These processes have been permeated by recurrent electoral irregularities and Frelimo’s increasing control of electoral institutions, which has guaranteed its hold on power.

Two episodes illustrate the limited access to political representation in Mozambique for those outside Frelimo’s special circle. The first relates to the 1999 general elections, when Joaquim Chissano was reelected with a margin of only 200,000 votes over Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama, in an electoral process in which 600,000 votes were declared invalid. Renamo and its leader rejected this result and all the others that followed. For many Renamo members and their supporters, Renamo’s victory was stolen on the basis of electoral fraud.

The second episode followed the Agreement on the Definitive Cessation of Military Hostilities signed shortly before the 2014 general elections. Renamo strongly contested the election results, accusing Frelimo of fraud, and demanded the right to appoint governors in the five central provinces where Dhlakama had won the majority of presidential votes—Nampula, Tete, Zambézia, Sofala, and Manica. In the absence of a compromise between Frelimo and Renamo, armed attacks resumed, and a new peace agreement was not signed until 2019.

Against this backdrop, Mondlane broke with Mozambique’s historic two-party rivalry and once again brought to light the issue of  political exclusion. It is in this context that President Filipe Nyusi ends his mandate under the specter of political violence, following the assassinations of Elvino Dias and Paulo Guambe, leaders of CAD and Podemos, respectively. The reconciliation process he has led on behalf of Frelimo in the framework of the Maputo Accord, signed in 2019, is also under threat. Although the process of demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration, an integral part of this agreement, has raised hopes (albeit limited), the irregularities in the 2023 and 2024 elections cast a shadow, suggesting a further deterioration in access to political representation and an escalation towards the physical elimination of the “enemy.”